The Macro-Structural Crisis of 2024–2025
The mortgage industry is no longer in a cyclical downturn; it is undergoing a permanent restructuring. The era of easy refinance volume has ended, replaced by a market characterized by macroeconomic stagnation and a fundamental shift in borrower psychology.
The market has bifurcated into two distinct classes. The financial penalty of trading a 3% rate for a 7% rate has decimated discretionary relocation—creating what industry insiders call "golden handcuffs."
A business model dependent solely on origination volume is existentially fragile. Lenders must decouple profitability from the volatility of interest rate cycles.